Could new inbound travel rules save the 2021-22 tourism high season in Thailand?
A plan to drop "any requirement for quarantine" for vaccinated travelers from certain countries may not be as simple as it sounds. (Island Watch #13)
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In a televised speech on October 11th, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha announced his intent to more broadly reopen Thailand to international travel starting November 1st. The proposal to require little more than a single Covid-19 test after arrival came as a surprise following months of government plans to expand the more restrictive “sandbox” model that was first tested in Phuket in July.
The speech injected hope into Thailand’s beleaguered tourism industry. Spirits had been dampened by the limited success of the existing programs, anchored in Phuket and Ko Samui, that permit vaccinated travelers to enter Thailand with almost no time in quarantine if they stay in approved destinations for a full week and take two Covid-19 tests while following other rules. Befuddlement surrounding delayed sandbox-style programs in Bangkok, Pattaya, Hua Hin, Chiang Mai and a handful of other destinations had also diminished confidence.
On the surface, the new plan appears to move beyond the sandbox model and simplify entry rules at a time when several countries in the Asia-Pacific region look ready to compete for international tourists over the coming holidays. Could the plan salvage Thailand’s coming high season from November to April? Or will obstacles delay any serious inbound tourism recovery to later in 2022 or ‘23?
A splash of hope
To be clear, no changes have been finalized yet. All of the hope and speculation is based almost entirely on Prayut’s recent speech — and especially on the following excerpt, as translated by Thai News Reports:
“I have instructed the Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration and the Ministry of Public Health to urgently consider within this week to allow, as of 1st November, international visitors to enter Thailand without any requirement for quarantine if they are fully vaccinated and arrive by air from low-risk countries. Visitors will need to show that they are Covid-free at their time of travel with an RT-PCR test undertaken before they leave their home country, and do a test in Thailand. Initially, we will begin with at least 10 countries on our low-risk, no-quarantine list, including the United Kingdom, Singapore, Germany, China, and the United States of America, and enlarge that list by 1st December, and, by 1st of January, move to a very extensive list.”
The speech also laid out an intention to permit alcohol consumption in restaurants and reopen “entertainment venues” around the country in December.
Prayut hinted that the speech was a response to the recent loosening of strict international travel restrictions by “some of Thailand’s most important tourist source countries,” namely Singapore, the UK and Australia. Another major source market, Russia, lifted a ban on flights to Thailand days after the speech
Tourism Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn exclaimed that “foreigners will flock to Thailand,” reported The Nation. Thai Airways moved to resume 36 international routes, and domestic airlines prepared to drop social distancing on planes. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) revealed efforts to arrange a performance by Lalisa, a hugely popular K-pop star from Thailand, as part of New Year celebrations that are tentatively scheduled for Bangkok and Phuket.
But following the initial burst of exhilaration, Thai tourism stakeholders are left wondering if the new plans will live up to the hype.
The pushback
Doubts and concerns began to surface immediately after Prayut’s speech.
“Why are we trying to ‘open the country’ when the testing system still has limited capacity, the percentage of fully vaccinated citizens is still small, coupled with the daily [case] number of around 10,000 per day?” asked Dr. Thira Woratanarat of Chulalongkorn University, as reported by Thai Enquirer.
Pheu Thai Party deputy secretary-general Paopoom Rojanakul “said that Thailand is far from being ready, pointing out that the rate of Covid-19 infections in several provinces popular with tourists are still high and the country’s healthcare system is only just coping with domestic cases,” reported Thai PBS World.
Many regular citizens have concerns as well, with 60% of the 1,392 respondents to a Suan Dusit poll rejecting a broad reopening, at least until more of Thailand’s population is fully vaccinated. Interviews conducted by Bangkok Post indicate that some working-class Thais fear anything — including an easing of inbound travel rules — that could potentially spark Covid-19 outbreaks leading to more lockdowns, curfews and other badly damaging disruptions to life and work.
While the confirmed Covid-19 case rate has declined in Bangkok, it has been rising in the South and some other parts of the country that are popular with tourists. Several markets were recently closed due to outbreaks in Chiang Mai and Hua Hin. Among 10 provinces included on a “Covid watchlist” are Rayong (home to Ko Samet), Songkhla (including Hat Yai) and Nakhon Ratchasima (covering Khao Yai). On October 10th, the well-respected Rural Doctors Society claimed the government is underreporting Covid-19 cases by not including thousands of infections detected via antigen tests, as opposed to RT-PCR tests, in the official counts.
Shortly after Prayut’s speech, writer and researcher Ken Lohatepanont pointed out that “Thailand hasn’t hit any meaningful vaccine target yet.” Roughly 54% of the population have received a first dose and 37% is fully vaccinated. Inoculating at least 70% of the population by year’s end looks feasible, but uneven vaccine distribution is leaving some provinces lagging behind.
Short on details
Prayut’s speech left the impression that vaccinated travelers from certain countries would be free to travel throughout Thailand after testing negative for Covid-19 shortly after arrival, but he did not explicitly state this. For now, it remains unclear what, if any, roles will be played by more restrictive, destination-specific entry programs, such as the Phuket Sandbox, over the coming months.
Health Ministry spokesman Dr. Taweesilp Visanuyothin said last week that 15 more provinces will open to vaccinated inbound travelers from November 1st, with many more to follow in December. It’s unclear if travelers from the “low-risk” countries will need to spend some time in one of these selected provinces, or if they’ll be allowed to travel freely around the country after an RT-PCR test upon arrival.
If the sandbox model is being scrapped, officials in provinces that were already preparing to become sandbox venues in November don’t seem to know it. Leaders in Bangkok, Pattaya and Chiang Mai have continued to publicly discuss plans that include “swab hubs” for testing inbound travelers during their stays, and “blue zones” that would temporarily keep travelers contained in certain areas.
Also unknown is how long it will take for inbound travelers to receive the results of the Covid-19 tests that they’ll need to take after arrival. Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul hinted that travelers could be required to stay one night in a SHA+ hotel within their city of entry while they wait for test results.
The only concrete change announced so far is a “Thailand Pass” that’s slated to replace the Certificate of Entry (COE) as a means of verifying inbound travelers’ vaccination records and officially approving their entries to Thailand. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promised this new document will be easier and faster to obtain than the COE, which is expected to remain in use for travelers who arrive by land or sea.
As for the approved “low-risk” countries, none have been specifically mentioned apart from the five included in Prayut’s speech. The Daily News reported that 38 countries are being considered. Given that the UK has been reporting more than 40,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day lately, it’s safe to say that the term “low risk” is really being used to refer to key tourism source countries.
What will it take?
Regardless of whether the government expands the sandbox model or more broadly eases inbound travel-entry rules, stubborn obstacles that appear certain to remain could be enough to hamstring the coming high season.
One problem is the seemingly hasty way that changes are rolled out, a predicament which echoes the last-minute snags that hindered confidence during the Phuket Sandbox launch. Uncertainty at this stage in the year is constricting the ability of airlines and tour agents to sell high-season trips to Thailand. Some travelers are choosing countries with reliable entry rules already in place.
An existing requirement that inbound travelers must show proof of insurance providing a minimum of $100,000 USD in coverage for Covid-19 treatment is likely to remain in the new Thailand Pass system. Also, Thailand is still officially in a state of emergency, a status that often increases travel insurance premiums.
Backpackers and younger travelers might look elsewhere until land border-crossing rules ease and quarantine rules in nearby countries are dropped, making the once-popular multi-week swings through much of Southeast Asia feasible again. TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn is not doing Thailand’s budget-travel sector any favors by repeatedly airing his desire to focus on wealthy tourists.
Above all, requiring even one Covid-19 test after arrival will keep many travelers away. A roughly three in 1,000 positive test rate among travelers who have entered Thailand via the Phuket Sandbox may not seem like much, but the risk is high enough to deter short-stay tourists and others who fret over the prospect of being forced into quarantine at their own expense. No one wants to start a trip with a swab test and a nail-biting night stuck in a hotel awaiting the results.
The tourism industry is likely to keep struggling until travelers can dive into Thailand straight from the moment they clear immigration. In lieu of that, we face a catch-22 in which many tourism businesses opt to stay closed until tourist traffic increases, and many tourists opt to hold off on visiting until more tourism businesses open and Thailand starts to look more like it did before Covid-19. 🌴
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Could new inbound travel rules save the 2021-22 tourism high season in Thailand?
My friends who are coming in tell me the paperwork is a nightmare. People who are expats here are motivated to jump the hoops but tourists? That's the question with Mexico et all being much easier to navigate. There could be on the flip side a sesmic shift in tourism patterns. The Thai govt must be fully aware of this. With forecasts it's going to take a long time to recover I am sad the govt is not retraining former tourism workers to do other vocations. They really have to relook at their community empowerment programs they stopped after Me Prayuth became PM
Thanks for the update, David. I am still thinking mid March 2022, but could easily push that back to mid April or even May to give things a little extra time to "normalize." What does your crystal ball predict about a 70% plus domestic vaccination rate and more reliable entry rules by then? Cheers.