Great newsletter, Stuart sent me from Couchfish. Incidentally, my friend was the first positive case on Koh Chang. Please keep up those safety practices!
I have been following your Thailand Covid updates with interest. My wife and I love Thailand and have been there 7 consecutive years up until the Covid pandemic hit. We flew home from Koh Samui on March 11, 2020 just in time to wake up the next morning and discover that the WHO had declared a world wide pandemic. I ended up having to quarantine for 2 weeks just to be safe as I am a physician and did not want to risk passing Covid on to anyone.
I was hoping that by January 2022 it would be safe to travel but I am not so sure anymore. The new numbers from Thailand are definitely going in the wrong direction. I really hope things turn around.
We live in Ontario, Canada and are currently in the midst of our third wave of Covid which seems to be the worst. Currently we are averaging about 4000 cases per day and we have a population of 14 million. The big worry is hospital and ICU capacity. As of yesterday, there were 2277 in hospital and of those 833 in ICU and 600 on a ventilator. I think there are about 2000 ICU beds in the entire province. The problem is, that people still need ICU for all of the regular problems. Patients are being transferred to other other hospitals and other cities and there is talk about sending them out of province and perhaps even to the US. We are in the midst of a mass vaccination program but still vaccine supply is short and promised vaccines don't always arrive. About 30% of the population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine.
I think one of the main issues is that people just don't seem to be able to follow the rules and stay home and avoid any gatherings. Perhaps they are just fatigued. I hope Thailand gets a handle on things. If numbers skyrocket and there are only 1000 ICU beds in all of Thailand that will be big trouble. I will continue to watch your newsletter for updates.
Having consumed TAT information for over 10 years, I must confess to never believing Thai government numbers. Least we forget, one year ago 50 doctors in private practice were recalled to active military duty. Why? After all, Thai government reports have not identified any significant level of infections in the military. And that's true even with a woman army officer in this recent surge who worked at Army Headquarters in BKK, and tested positive while in Chonburi attending joint trailing session with Navy personnel. Miraculous.
Your point about the vast majority of positive tests in this current surge being self-reported at hospitals, is both very telling and concerning. And at a time I see the Government reduce the number of Astra-vaccines set to arrive beginning in June, down from 10M per month to 8M to 6M per month. Moreover, I continue to read conflicting statements about whether the Astra-vaccine is actually being produced in Thailand by Thais for Thais, or simply being purchased on the world market and imported to Thailand through the "special" Thai pharmaceutical company. Do you know which is true?
Finally, David--while I have subscribed to your free newsletter, I do not see a paid subscription as I do with my other SubStack subscriptions. How do we support your fine efforts?
Great newsletter, Stuart sent me from Couchfish. Incidentally, my friend was the first positive case on Koh Chang. Please keep up those safety practices!
Hi David,
I have been following your Thailand Covid updates with interest. My wife and I love Thailand and have been there 7 consecutive years up until the Covid pandemic hit. We flew home from Koh Samui on March 11, 2020 just in time to wake up the next morning and discover that the WHO had declared a world wide pandemic. I ended up having to quarantine for 2 weeks just to be safe as I am a physician and did not want to risk passing Covid on to anyone.
I was hoping that by January 2022 it would be safe to travel but I am not so sure anymore. The new numbers from Thailand are definitely going in the wrong direction. I really hope things turn around.
We live in Ontario, Canada and are currently in the midst of our third wave of Covid which seems to be the worst. Currently we are averaging about 4000 cases per day and we have a population of 14 million. The big worry is hospital and ICU capacity. As of yesterday, there were 2277 in hospital and of those 833 in ICU and 600 on a ventilator. I think there are about 2000 ICU beds in the entire province. The problem is, that people still need ICU for all of the regular problems. Patients are being transferred to other other hospitals and other cities and there is talk about sending them out of province and perhaps even to the US. We are in the midst of a mass vaccination program but still vaccine supply is short and promised vaccines don't always arrive. About 30% of the population has received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine.
I think one of the main issues is that people just don't seem to be able to follow the rules and stay home and avoid any gatherings. Perhaps they are just fatigued. I hope Thailand gets a handle on things. If numbers skyrocket and there are only 1000 ICU beds in all of Thailand that will be big trouble. I will continue to watch your newsletter for updates.
Thanks very much.
John
Excellent summary, David; thank you!
Having consumed TAT information for over 10 years, I must confess to never believing Thai government numbers. Least we forget, one year ago 50 doctors in private practice were recalled to active military duty. Why? After all, Thai government reports have not identified any significant level of infections in the military. And that's true even with a woman army officer in this recent surge who worked at Army Headquarters in BKK, and tested positive while in Chonburi attending joint trailing session with Navy personnel. Miraculous.
Your point about the vast majority of positive tests in this current surge being self-reported at hospitals, is both very telling and concerning. And at a time I see the Government reduce the number of Astra-vaccines set to arrive beginning in June, down from 10M per month to 8M to 6M per month. Moreover, I continue to read conflicting statements about whether the Astra-vaccine is actually being produced in Thailand by Thais for Thais, or simply being purchased on the world market and imported to Thailand through the "special" Thai pharmaceutical company. Do you know which is true?
Finally, David--while I have subscribed to your free newsletter, I do not see a paid subscription as I do with my other SubStack subscriptions. How do we support your fine efforts?
Allen
My heart aches hearing all this...