“Keep a place you love in mind — a mental image to cut through the gloom,” I wrote for the Travelfish newsletter when I first started Thai Island Times back in April. “The quarantines will end. The last of the country-by-country travel restrictions will be lifted. Yes, this will happen!”
We’re not there yet, as a new wave of the coronavirus here in Thailand — a parting gift from 2020 — is making clear. But we are getting closer.
“It’s like a bottle of soda that’s been shaking, shaking, shaking...” This was how a friend described the pent-up demand for world travel when we chatted on Christmas. “Towards the end of 2021 when more people are vaccinated, it will be like the ‘roaring twenties,’” he said. I too sense an explosion of travel on the horizon.
Thai islands and coastal areas that have been hit hard economically will eventually return to their former glory, hopefully with some changes for the better. But of course, things will never be exactly the way they were before the pandemic.
Many travel-related businesses, from airlines to tour companies to guesthouses and beach bars, will have disappeared or been sold by 2022. Many more are already gone. Proof of Covid-19 vaccination will probably be required to cross international borders for the rest of our lives. And the pandemic’s ripple effects will hit in unexpected ways, like a longtail boat’s wake splashing a sunbather out of a nap.
With all of this in mind, I’m breaking from the usual Island Wrap format to pose eight questions about Thai islands and coastal areas that I’m pondering as 2021 comes into focus. I’ll get back to the usual coastal Thailand news wraps next month. As always, thank you for reading Thai Island Times.
1. Will Thailand get the coronavirus under control?
On December 20th, after more than six months with close to zero known local transmissions of Covid-19 in Thailand, we were blindsided by news that 576 people had tested positive for the virus on a single day in Samut Sakhon southwest of Bangkok. The outbreak started at Talad Klang Kung (Central Shrimp Market) in Mahachai, one of the largest fishing hubs in Thailand.
Dorms for migrants, who work in Samut Sakhon’s many markets and factories, were hastily transformed into makeshift hospitals rimmed by razor wire. Mahachai is home to one of Thailand’s largest communities of migrants from Myanmar, a country that is struggling to contain the virus. The Thai government’s assumption is that the virus came with illegal immigrants to Samut Sakhon from Myanmar, although the first known case of the outbreak was a 67-year-old Thai shrimp farmer.
Cases of local transmission since the 20th have topped 2,000 in Thailand, with 1,300 in Samut Sakhon. No one is allowed to leave that province without permission.
But the cat had already left the bag. Vendors from all over Thailand travel to Mahachai to buy seafood for resale, and Covid-19 cases quickly began to surface far away from the epicenter. At time of writing, 45 provinces in all regions have reported at least one case of local transmission since the 20th. On Monday the 28th, Thailand recorded its first Covid-19 death, a 45-year-old Rayong man, since September.
He was among more than 100 cases (and climbing) linked to an illegal gambling den in the capital of Rayong province on the Eastern Gulf coast. After claiming that no such gambling venues exist in Rayong, the provincial police chief was transferred out. Daily cases in or close to double figures are also being found in Bangkok and several nearby provinces, including Chonburi on the eastern seaboard.
Krabi province is also on high alert after several cases recently found there were linked to a big bike event on Ko Lanta, which was attended by a Covid-19 positive man from Samut Sakhon earlier this month. In Krabi’s provincial capital district, including Ao Nang and Railay but not Ko Phi Phi, bars and other “high-risk” venues have been ordered to close. Similar measures are in effect in Rayong’s capital district, including Ko Samet; and all of Samut Songkhram province with its many floating markets. Curbs on nightlife are in effect in Bangkok, Chonburi and Chanthaburi as well. My guess is that these measures are only the tip of the iceberg.
The timing could not be worse. Many thousands of people are currently venturing all over the country during one of the busiest domestic travel weeks of the year. The government may be waiting until after the New Year holidays to impose wider lockdowns in an effort to avoid a rush on transport stations.
Instances of discrimination against migrants, especially those from Myanmar, are on the rise. A pair of Myanmar nationals who are long-term residents of Bangkok were “kicked off” a bus to the Ko Chang ferry piers. A factory owner fired several migrants and then “dumped” 14 of them by a highway. Hate speech is flaring online. Some governors are encouraging such ugliness by enacting discriminatory orders, such as one in Chumphon province that requires all migrants who are not at work to stay in their homes from 6:00 P.M. to 6:00 A.M., or face legal consequences.
The fishing industry is taking a beating as many people avoid shrimp and other seafood products, even those that aren’t sourced from Samut Sakhon. An attempt to show the public that shrimp from that area is safe backfired on Monday, when the governor of Samut Sakhon tested positive for Covid-19 shortly after joining the Health Minister in a PR display of cooking and eating shrimp.
So how bad will it get? Will Thailand repeat the success it had in suppressing the virus earlier in 2020, or will it be too late once millions are finished traveling and celebrating the New Year? Yesterday, public health officials calculated that by January 14th, daily cases could reach 8,000 with the types of moderate control measures now being applied, or 1,000 cases with intensified measures like we endured in April.
I’m still thankful for the half-year of freedom from the coronavirus that we were able to experience in Thailand. It was good while it lasted.
2. How about vaccines?
The new outbreak makes this question all the more urgent: When will the Thai public have widespread access to Covid-19 vaccines?
As it stands, the government has signed only one contract for 13 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. These are expected to arrive in April. Meanwhile, researchers at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok say large-scale production of the vaccine they’ve been developing could begin in late 2021. It appears that vaccinating a majority of the Thai public will take all of 2021 and into 2022. There has been no word about when a vaccine might be available to foreign residents.
Another pressing question: Will people who are vaccinated in other countries be allowed to enter Thailand without spending two weeks in an expensive quarantine hotel? Only 3,065 foreign tourists entered Thailand this past November, and the country’s tourism industry is desperate for relief.
The Prime Minister said in a speech last month that Thai authorities will wait on allowing quarantine-free tourism from abroad, even for vaccinated tourists, until most Thai people are vaccinated. This could change once effects of vaccines are studied in more depth. But I don’t expect anything resembling mass tourism until some time next high season — November 2021 to March 2022 — at the earliest.
3. What will destinations be like afterwards?
When the foreign tourists finally return in significant numbers, they will find that many Thai islands and other destinations have changed significantly. Countless commercial properties, from large hotels to dive boats and hole-in-the-wall shops, now sit vacant. Many tourism business owners and workers have lost their livelihoods and left the islands and beaches. Will they return?
I reckon that yes, eventually, many will come back to the tourism industry. Others are able to tread water indefinitely. A couple of nice thing about islands is that catching fish is free, and communities tend to look after their own.
But it will take years for the industry to rebuild and many businesses have been lost forever. That pub or resort or beachfront massage stand that you adored in years past might still be there, but perhaps with a different name, owner and staff when you visit after the pandemic. One fear of mine is that large companies and investors will take over or erase and rebuild beloved businesses that were family run.
A related question: What will happen to large-scale hotels and other infrastructure built specifically for mass tourism in places like Phuket, Ao Nang, Ko Phi Phi, Ko Samui and Pattaya? If numbers of foreign tourists don’t rebound close to the 2019 record of 39.8 million over the next few years, we might see large properties join Thailand’s already sizable number of derelict, unoccupied buildings.
Business closures aside, some places will simply look different from a physical standpoint. Khao San Road in Bangkok and Ko Larn near Pattaya are two spots getting major facelifts. Don’t be surprised to find widened roads, dismantled structures, alterations to “walking streets” and other cosmetic changes as authorities “beautify” their districts while most of the tourists are away.
4. Will new travel regulations be put in place?
The government had already moved to preserve some of Thailand’s fragile marine environments before the pandemic, closing Ko Phi Phi Leh’s Maya Bay and Ko Yung to visitors (on land anyway) in 2018; and Ko Tachai and Ko Bon two years earlier. Overnight tourist stays were also banned on Ko Similan and Ko Lao Liang. While Maya Bay might reopen to limited numbers of tourists next year, the days of thousands of sunscreen-covered bodies crowding The Beach are long gone.
Might a highly controlled version of Maya Bay foretell situations for other Thai marine park islands and beaches in the future? Will quotas on the numbers of daily visitors allowed in national parks, which were imposed in June, continue into 2021 and beyond? And will all national parks close to tourism for three months each year, as has been proposed? We’ll have to wait for answers to these questions.
What is certain is that the pandemic sparked a conversation about how Thai islands and coastal areas should, or should not, be regulated for tourism. Environmentalists and authorities in agencies like the Dept. of National Parks and the Dept. of Marine and Coastal Resources tend to argue for limiting tourist numbers, not only to marine parks but also small inhabited islands like Ko Phi Phi Don, Ko Lipe and Ko Tao. On the other side of the debate are some tourism operators and officials who tend to favor economic growth over environmental conservation. Can a balance be struck?
Over the last decade, the sheer momentum of mass tourism made regulation difficult. That could change in coming years, especially at marine parks. While I don’t expect the government to make good on statements about focusing on high-end tourists by implementing hefty financial requirements, I do hope to see better management and perhaps quotas on visitor numbers at small islands down the road.
Another way the pandemic could change travel in Thailand for the better would be if the government’s recent commitment to long-stay travelers and remote workers stays in place permanently. I see no good reason to put an end to the new “special tourist visa” that allows for stays of up to 270 days in the country, or the increase of visa-exempt stays from 30 to 45 days. If travelers and remote workers have funds and vaccinations, why not let them hang around?
5. How about the marine life?
Much has been written about a resurgence of wildlife in Thailand during the pandemic and while some of those writers made invalid assumptions and exaggerations, much of it is valid. A prime example of environmental healing is the most successful season of sea turtle nesting in decades, including at once bustling beaches on Phuket and Ko Samui.
Fewer dugongs died in 2020 than the previous year, even if dredging in the Trang River buried some of the seagrass they live off at Ko Libong. Various species of dolphins, whales, sharks and other sea creatures appeared more frequently than in recent years, often in unexpected places. Though a lack of tourists enabled illegal fishing, there is some truth to the “nature is healing” narrative. Will it last?
I’ve become genuinely impressed by the growing awareness of and respect for marine life and coastal environments among the Thai public. Examples include frequent mangrove planting, beach/reef cleaning, coral rehabilitation, marine life rescues, educational campaigns, and a move towards electric ferries. Thai people are even developing prosthetic fins for injured sea turtles, and providing hermit crabs with the shells they need to survive. There is plenty of cause for hope.
6. Which environmental problems will persist?
The pandemic led to an increase in the already massive amounts of rubbish that dirties the seas and harms marine life. Despite the growing popularity of reusable shopping bags and a wave of recycling in some coastal areas, Thai society remains deeply reliant on single-use plastics and other harmful substances. Littering is still common. Debris from fishing boats kills marine life every day.
Erosion is arguably an even worse problem. Many Thai beaches have all but disappeared as containment barriers are constructed to hold back the encroaching seas. Homes and farms have been lost. Large-scale concrete development on coastal land has worsened erosion while contributing to flash flooding in Ko Samui, Phuket, Ko Lanta, Ko Lipe, Pattaya and other islands and coastal areas.
Nakhon Si Thammarat and other parts of Southern Thailand are still rebuilding after the worst floods in five decades devastated the region over the last several months. Once reliable weather trends have grown erratic, causing monsoons to start later, last longer and hit harder than in the past. These are some of the symptoms of the climate crisis, which now threatens low-lying Thailand and its coastlines.
Pollution is also a pressing concern, especially the harmful smog that hangs over all regions of Thailand during much of the dry season. Bangkok now places near the top of lists of cities with the worst air pollution on earth with some regularity. Little has been done to curb agricultural burning and emissions from traffic and industry throughout the country and beyond, from Sumatra to Northern Laos.
Unfortunately, all of these environmental problems will almost certainly persist long after the pandemic is behind us.
7. Will controversial infrastructure projects go forward?
One of Thailand’s more consequential environmental and social issues over the past year is the proposed construction of a 6,325-acre industrial estate and port in Chana, a rural district with beautiful beaches and fishing villages in Songkhla province. Well-organized opposition succeeded in convincing authorities to formally delay the project earlier this month, but it remains a possibility in the future.
The same can be said for a proposed “land bridge” that would include a new railroad, highway and ports in lieu of a canal across the Kra Isthmus from Chumphon to Ranong. Another proposal under review involves a 100-km bridge across the Upper Gulf from Chonburi to Phetchaburi. There’s also talk of a new scenic road that would cover more than 1,000 km of Thai coastline, according to its backers.
A bridge linking Ko Lanta Noi to the mainland at Ban Hua Hin is one of the likeliest of the proposed infrastructure projects to reach fruition. It would cut out the need for a ferry crossing and join a 2016-opened bridge between Ko Lanta Noi and Ko Lanta Yai to make the latter the only major Thai island accessible by road other than Phuket. Look for construction to start on that project by the end of 2021.
Feasibility studies are also underway on a proposed bridge between Ko Samui and the mainland; and between the Songkhla and Phatthalung sides of Songkhla Lake. Other proposed projects to keep an eye on include a widely opposed deep-sea port in Pakbara (the pier town for Ko Lipe); the lethargic construction of a high-speed rail line linking Bangkok’s airports with Pattaya and U-Tapao Airport; and a second “Phuket airport” that would actually be located in Phang Nga.
While some of these projects have more public support than others, I often question the need for such pricey infrastructure when millions of Thai people are struggling to survive due to the pandemic. Perhaps Thailand’s first major project of 2021 should be keeping businesses and workers who depend on foreign tourism, fishing and other affected industries afloat until the coronavirus is beaten.
8. What’s ahead for Thai Island Times?
With a repaired computer and a visa extended for another year, I’m dedicated to producing this newsletter and keeping it free for the time being. I intend to publish new posts at least once per week, including the Island Wrap on a bi-weekly basis. It’s part of a web of island-related projects that I hope to complete by the end of 2021. (I’ll reveal more on those down the road.)
More freelance writing — such as my recent story on Isaan for CNN Travel — is also on deck. If you’re an editor (or you know one!) who may be interested in articles on travel in Thailand and/or any of the issues mentioned in this newsletter, please don’t hesitate to get in touch. The same goes for readers. My inbox is open to suggestions, constructive criticism, corrections, questions and good old banter.
I hope to travel more in 2021, if the coronavirus allows it. Luckily, Chin and I took a short trip to Trat right before the recent outbreak to check out obscure Ko Jik (loved it!) and most of the Trat coast. Reminding me how fun and surreptitious travel can be, the trip included a rousing group of school kid “guides,” a feisty turtle and brave Thais who search for explosive mines in the mountains near Cambodia. I’ll be writing about all of them and plenty more over the coming weeks and months.
Until then, wherever you are, we wish you a happy New Year. 🌴