Should Thailand's tourism reopening programs be suspended?
In many ways, Thailand's simultaneous efforts to ease the Covid-19 health crisis and reopen international tourism exist in a state of friction. (Island Watch #12)
Is it fair to encourage vaccinated international tourists to visit Phuket when most vaccinated Thai citizens who live in Thailand are banned from entering Phuket? Is it sound policy to let foreign tourists into a country enduring a Covid-19 crisis characterized by lockdowns, hospital bed shortages and a low vaccination rate? Are they needed to save what’s left of Thailand’s tourism industry?
Opinions tend to be strong on both sides of this debate.
Critics of the Phuket Sandbox, Samui Plus and the new “7+7” add-on to the Sandbox argue that these programs unfairly favor international tourists over the people of Thailand while further burdening the country’s severely strained medical system. Proponents insist that the economic benefits outweigh other concerns, arguing that Thailand must learn to live with Covid-19 without delay.
The government has shown no sign of shelving the programs, even after Covid-19 cases in Phuket soared far above the 90 per-week measure that officials said in June would prompt a suspension of the Sandbox. In the words of businessman Tom Kruesopon during a panel organized by the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand last month, might the Sandbox be “putting lipstick on a pig”?
The purpose of this article is to clarify realities and comb through points of view to help you develop a more informed opinion. Each section ends with at least one question; feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
‘We need to learn to live with the virus’
Many of the arguments for extending and expanding Thailand’s tourism reopening programs revolve around the viewpoint that Covid-19 cannot be eradicated and a zero-tolerance approach to the virus is no longer feasible. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha said as much in a televised speech on June 15th:
“We have seen that this virus is not going to go away quickly. We have to come to terms that it will continue to be around in the world, and in Thailand for some time. We cannot wait for a time when everyone is fully vaccinated with two shots to open the country or for when the world is free of the virus.”
In a recent SCMP opinion piece, real estate investment firm partner Nicholas Spiro seems to look beyond the tragic health crisis in Thailand when declaring the Phuket Sandbox a “ray of hope for Asia’s tourism industry.” Central to his view is the idea that Thailand should accept the risks posed by Covid-19:
“The sandbox scheme is a belated recognition that a new approach is needed, one that starts to treat the pandemic as an endemic, albeit increasingly manageable, disease.”
Indeed, many public health experts now agree that Covid-19 will become both endemic and manageable unless future mutations render vaccines useless. As quoted by Sarah Zhang in a reassuring article in The Atlantic, infectious-disease researcher Richard Webby seems cautiously hopeful about Covid-19 becoming tamable enough to largely return to pre-pandemic ways of life, albeit with a caveat:
“This is something we’re going to have to live with. And so long as it’s not impacting health care as a whole, then I think we can.”
But when it comes to the current situation in Thailand, Webby’s caveat pokes a hole in the government’s near-term position on tourism. There’s no doubt that Covid-19 is critically impacting health care as a whole in Thailand. If inbound tourists need to access medical care, not only due to Covid-19 but also the inevitable motorbike accidents and other routine health issues, how much is too much?
An unnecessary burden?
From April 1st through yesterday, Thailand’s confirmed cases for the entire pandemic shot from 29,000 to 1 million. In less than five months, the known Covid-19 death toll sadly spiked from 94 to 8,856 — and it’s been rising quickly of late.
Despite numerous containment measures including an overnight curfew in 29 of the 77 Thai provinces to go with hard lockdowns of many villages, factories and laborer housing camps, nearly 5,400 Covid-19 patients were known to be in serious condition in Thailand yesterday. Only 8% of the population has been fully vaccinated.
Despite a local vaccination rate above 70%, Phuket’s 129 confirmed cases yesterday piled onto a total of 1,192 so far this month. Schools are closed. Several “Covid-19 care centers” for patients with mild or no symptoms — including one occupying an old provincial prison — have materialized around the island. A fresh market and fishing port shut down, and part of central Phuket town was sealed off.
An outbreak also hit Ko Samui shortly after its tourism reopening launched on July 15th, though, as with Phuket, no known transmissions have originated from international travelers there. Ko Samui’s first Covid-19 death was reported on August 18th, and case counts have been in double digits on recent days.
As of yesterday, only 62 of the total 22,389 travelers who entered Thailand via the Sandbox program since it launched on July 1st had tested positive for Covid-19 during their mandatory two weeks in Phuket. Sandbox proponents often cite this 0.0028% positivity rate while arguing that people who were already in the country — and not the Sandbox travelers — are generating the rising caseload.
But thousands of Sandbox travelers have proceeded on to other parts of Thailand, including hard-hit areas like Bangkok and Chonburi. Keen to enjoy their time in the “Land of Smiles,” international tourists are visiting temples, villages and restaurants that, to quote one travel writer, can be “an influencer’s heaven.” Simply by having fun, they can potentially become extra burdens on the health system by getting sick or injured themselves, or by passing Covid-19 to others after being exposed to the virus and becoming unwitting asymptomatic carriers traveling about.
Some critics of tourism reopening feel that any amount of medical resources used by foreign tourists is too much when things are so dire in Thailand. Is the revenue they bring enough to outweigh any negative impacts on the health system?
‘The economy depends on it’
Sandbox travelers contributed 829 million baht ($24.9 million USD) in revenue to Phuket during July, according to the TAT. Though a far cry from the average of over 30 billion baht in monthly international tourism receipts collected in Phuket over 2019 according to data from C9 Hotelworks, the influx of Sandbox-related cash is nothing to scoff at in a tourism-driven economy like Phuket’s.
But in the big picture of tourism in Thailand, the reopening programs are doing almost nothing to ease the financial desperation that many tourism business owners and workers have faced for the last year and a half.
So far, the primary government help for the tourism industry came via a domestic travel stimulus program with benefits that were heavily lopsided towards businesses that had long focused on Thai tourists, as opposed to foreigners. Several small tourism business owners tell me that the government provided them with 15,000 baht, a sum that was allotted to various types of workers last year, along with 7,000 baht that could only be used for consumer spending earlier this year. Some tour guides also got 2,400 baht in exchange for submitting three original videos to the TAT.
In sum, the total aid these people have received from the government since border closures started blocking inbound tourism in March 2020 amounts to, at most, $732 USD. Many tour companies, guesthouses, dive outfits and other small businesses that I know of have suffered revenue declines ranging from 90% to 99.99%. In many cases, the pandemic’s impact on tourism workers, as opposed to business owners, has been even worse.
Many of these businesses are also being left out of a recent income relief program because they’re not included in the types of businesses that the government deems to be affected by lockdown measures, or they’re based in provinces that never officially went into lockdown. Unlike the few tourism operators now earning a little cash from reopening programs, most tourism businesses in Bangkok and many other parts of Thailand have gained nothing from Phuket Sandbox and Samui Plus.
Critics of tourism reopening say the Thai government should financially support the tourism industry rather than forcing it to rely on a trickle of inbound travelers. One of them is Southeast Asia travel expert (and my friend) Stuart McDonald of Travelfish, who voiced his opinion in a Couchfish piece last month:
“Push these piecemeal re-openings back, financially support small businesses and prioritize vaccinating local people. It is that simple.”
Of course, funding and implementing broad-ranging financial aid programs is no easy task in a country like Thailand with limited resources, a sprawling bureaucracy and millions of informal workers. Could the Thai government truly support the tourism industry until the the nationwide vaccination rate is high enough to realistically transition into a “learn to live with the virus” stage?
How to save the Thai tourism industry
In a series of articles for Bangkok Post, economist Chartchai Parasuk pragmatically carves into the Thai government’s fluid financial position, including the feasibility of a major income relief program. His latest piece suggests that 2 trillion baht ($60 billion USD) is needed “to prevent the economy from collapsing.”
A bug in the rice bowl, however, is the fact that the Thai government had a “dangerously low” 73 billion baht in excess liquidity this past June, as compared to 624 billion back in January. The 1997 Tom Yum Kung Crisis which sent much of Asia’s economy into a death spiral was partly caused by a liquidity crisis in Thailand, and the country’s humiliating failures back then must still loom large on the minds of those who steer Thailand’s macroeconomic policies today.
But according to Chartchai’s analysis published on May 27th, the government does have options to borrow hefty sums for economic relief:
“Of course, given the strength of our international reserves, Thailand is not qualified to obtain an IMF loan. But we can easily borrow in the international capital market … The government could borrow $20-30 billion [USD] to cover the cost of economic relief packages and finance future fiscal deficits.”
In his August 5th installment, Chartchai asks why the government hasn’t allocated 500 billion baht that was authorized to be borrowed on May 25th:
“Why the hold up — is the situation now not critical enough? … The cruel fact is that 87% of Thais have an average of just 4,622 baht in their bank accounts. How can they survive harsh economic conditions without government support?”
Some want to siphon money away from the government itself to partly fund income relief, for example by temporarily cutting the pay of government employees by 20%. Many Thais have grown frustrated with what they see as the wasteful use of public funds for things like high-speed rail lines and ornate street lamps. Others think Thai billionaires and corporations that have profited during the pandemic should give more back to a country that’s one of the most economically unequal on earth.
The bottom line: those who claim that tourism reopening programs are the only hope for the Thai tourism industry are either not seeing the big picture or giving the government a pass on what some would say is its duty to support Thai citizens during a crisis. Chartchai’s commentary seems to make it clear that the government could come up with the funds needed for substantial financial relief.
If that can be pulled off, should tourism reopening programs lurch on when the entire country is subjected to intrusive Covid-19 containment measures?
Locals not welcome
A final argument for suspending tourism reopening has more to do with social fairness than money or health. Until September 1st at the earliest, almost anyone who lives in Thailand is not allowed to enter Phuket province, even if they’re fully vaccinated and willing to be tested multiple times while following all of the same Sandbox rules that apply to international travelers.
That’s right — unless delivering supplies or otherwise obtaining special permission to gain entry, the only way for a fully vaccinated Thai or foreigner who lives in Thailand to enter Phuket is to leave the country and then apply for re-entry to Thailand via the Phuket Sandbox after spending a minimum of three weeks in another country. The drastic call to seal the island province off from domestic travel prompted Phil of Ajarn.com to half-jokingly dub it “The Separate Kingdom of Phuket.”
And it doesn’t end there. While discussing a proposed “travel bubble” encompassing Phuket, Phang Nga and Krabi provinces that would extend the invisible domestic travel wall to several destinations included in the 7+7 program, Phuket Vice Governor Vikrom Jakthee pointed out that Sandbox travelers are still allowed into Phuket even after they’ve gone off to travel around other parts of Thailand:
“Phuket Sandbox tourists who travel to other provinces and want to return to Phuket are one of the 16 groups of people exempted from the measure.”
In addition to encouraging these travelers to spend only a week in Phuket before enjoying a second week in Khao Lak, Ko Yao Noi, Ko Yao Yai, Ko Phi Phi, Railay, Ko Ngai, Ko Samui, Ko Phangan or Ko Tao and then go wherever they want in Thailand, plans are also in the works to provide special domestic flights for “Sandboxers” when nearly all domestic flights are grounded to stop the spread of Covid-19.
Speaking on The Southeast Asia Travel Show last month, tourism and travel analyst Gary Bowerman of Asia Travel Re:Set commented on the troubling optics of shielding Phuket and other areas from domestic travel:
“Isolating tourism on two islands or a number of islands just looks a little bit like you’re ghettoizing travel and I’m not sure that’s building any confidence at all.”
Indeed, the preferential treatment of foreign tourists looks increasingly jarring in a country whose Prime Minister recently said, as paraphrased by Bangkok Post, “people should only go outside of their home when necessary.” The favoritism of foreign tourists is also stirring up public resentment that had already been swelling due to the government’s early prioritization of Phuket for vaccines.
What do you reckon, should only Thai citizens and foreign residents be able to enter Thailand with almost no quarantine while tourist entries are suspended until the situation doesn’t require banning nearly all Thais and Thailand-based foreigners from entering some provinces, just to ensure that foreign tourists can keep holidaying in them?
When can we stop saying “sandbox”?
I urge everyone to consider the tourism reopening programs from the perspectives of the Thai people in the context of the dual health and economic crises in Thailand. In my opinion, honing in on the viewpoints of foreign tourists and the annoyances they might endure can wait until this pandemic has been sorted.
And yes, barring an emergence of the Godzilla of coronavirus variants, things will improve in time. Life in Thailand — as well as international tourism — should return in earnest once mass vaccination takes a lot of the bite out of Covid-19.
As for the Phuket Sandbox, I think the program is less important to Thailand’s broader struggle to move beyond the pandemic than many people currently perceive. Only after fully vaccinating most of Thailand’s population will we begin to recover much of what’s been lost, and finally get a taste of the normalcy we crave. By then, a sandbox will be nothing but a place for kids to build castles. 🌴
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Hi, David.
My dad used to say we shouldn't assume malevolence when incompetence can explain an outcome. I think that is clearly the case here. However, to be fair, we are seeing the same COVID surge in the United States despite vaccines being readily available for the asking.
I would be the first to agree that the best approach would have been to prioritize vaccinating all locals. But in the absence of enough vaccine, that is not going to happen, and in these circumstances, the problem with the egalitarian approach is that it tends to ensure everyone suffers equally rather than everyone benefits equally. As an example, imagine we don't have enough food to feed everyone. Should we then not feed anyone, or should we at least distribute as best we can the food supplies we have? It would be the same with limited vaccines.
Therefore, why not employ available resources in a way that yields the greatest collective benefit? Phuket is unique in that it is easily physically isolated, and special in that a greater part of its economy depends on foreign visitors. If the sandbox program could bring even limited economic benefits to the island without increasing health risks from COVID, why shouldn't it? The exceptionally low rate of infections among sandbox arrivals quoted by David suggests that is the case.
Also, I'm not convinced that Thais not being able to visit Phuket is a significant hardship or a big enough reason to scrap the program. Thais aren't really able to move around freely elsewhere at the moment either. I would agree, however, that once sandbox arrivals leave Phuket, they should be under the same rules as Thai nationals for interprovincial travel, including entering Phuket.
Thanks again, David, for another thoughtful, balanced, well-researched article. Cheers.
Hello David,
Once again you point out real questions by a honest approach.
When the major part of the population in Thailand is deeply suffering of the pandemic and is urged to stay home, it can be awkward to give foreign tourists the possibility to come and indulge themselves on a paradise island as if the world outside didn't exist except Bangkok and Pattaya, of course.
Thai people need money. Under such circumstances, why refusing to locals to take part in these reopening programs? Are they not entitled to seek kind of relief too? All sources of money from tourism should benefit every single province as long as they are willing to reopen and welcome visitors whether they are locals, residents or foreign tourists.
I wouldn't be surprised if the government had personal and financial interests in that Phuket Sandbox whose name says a lot. What about Phuket's governor? In this crisis, he is distinguishing himself by his selfishness. How dare he boast on the fact that 70% of the island is vaccinated while the rest of the country is waiting for its first injection? No doubt he has an agenda.
In my opinion, the prime minister and the authorities should focus on the most vulnerable people before rolling out the red carpet to the wealthiest and privileged ones as usual. First things first.